Finally Something to Report: Nothing Changes

After yesterday's report of a "nothing" first quarter, we said we'd bring you something. So here it is: Nothing changes. It's from a book I've been reading, and it's frankly true.

Despite our modern conceit that we've made enormous progress in the last century or so, compared to all of the rest of human history, the fact is nothing really changes. Oh technology's made incredible strides. Modern appliances, computers, the Internet and all that, sure. But when it comes to the real stuff of life, we're about the same as we were when Eve convinced Adam to take a bite of the apple.

A novel I've been reading* provides an interesting take on this. As the main character, a young woman of decidedly modern education, sits and chats with an old relic of a woman one day, the old woman attempts to share a bit of wisdom. And here it is for your contemplation:
"...fundamentally, nothing changes, you know. The huge old mistakes emerge time and time again from the depths, like cunning monsters stalking prey. If you could sit at the window and watch human history unfold, do you know what you'd see...

"I'll tell you. You'd see an immense chain of mistakes repeated over the centuries, that's what. You'd watch them, arrayed in different garb, hidden behind various masks, concealed beneath a multitude of disguises, but they'd remain the same. No, it's not easy to become aware of it, of course not. You have to stay alert and keep your eyes open to detect those old threats, recurring endlessly..."
Now there's something, don't you think? We in the investment world, bathing as we do in financial data mixed with injections of blather day after day tend to lose track of reality, I think. Too many of us watch the latest government reports, parse through technical and fundamental analysis. Sometimes we maybe study a bit of financial history. But we typically miss the real "big picture." And it leads us to forget that so much of what we decide can be not only mistaken, but simply the repetition of mistakes made over and over again throughout history.

No, I'm not trying to be "negative" or depress anyone. It's just the way of the world.

Indeed, in the novel the young woman objects to this analysis:
"Aren't you being rather pessimistic?"
The old geezer replies:
"Pessimistic? Not at all, my dear. What is a gatekeeper to do if not to warn of what she's seen. Gatekeepers aren't optimistic or pessimistic...They're either awake of asleep."
I prefer to be like the gatekeeper who's awake. How about you?



*The Awakening of Miss Prim by Natalia Sanmartin Fenollera

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